Harvey Mudd College

Dept. of Mathematics

Math 158 – Linear Statistical Models

Spring 2008 (Second Half)

Prof. Susan Martonosi

 


ANNOUNCEMENTS

* Add yourself to the course email list.  Send an e-mail message to listkeeper@hmc.edu.  In the body of the e-mail message, write subscribe math-158-l  

* Please fill out the Student Information Form.

* Here’s a sample Project Report

 

LECTURE 2 FILES

LECTURE2.MPJ

Lecture2.doc

 

LECTURE 4 FILES

WINDMILL.MPJ

UTILITY.MPJ

Lecture 4 PowerPoint

 

LECTURE 6 FilES

CO2.MPJ

Lecture 6 PowerPoint

 

LECTURE 8 FILES

WMG.MPJ

INVERTER.MPJ

Lecture 8 PowerPoint

 

LECTURE 10 FILES

TOOLLIFE.MPJ

AC.MPJ

Lecture 10 PowerPoint

 

LECTURE 12 FILES

SENIC.MPJ

SALARIES.MPJ

Lecture 12 PowerPoint

 

LECTURE 14 FILES

AUTOCORR.MPJ

TOOTHPASTE.MPJ

Lecture 14 PowerPoint

 

 

HOMEWORK ASSIGNMENTS Assigned daily; due weekly at 5pm on Wednesday

 

DATA SETS FOR KUTNER, NACHTSHEIM, NETER AND LI (.txt format; on-campus access only)

TEXT WEBSITE: http://apps.csom.umn.edu/Nachtsheim/5th/

PROJECT DETAILS Note: If your project involves time series data, please read Chapter 12 of Kutner, Nachtsheim, Neter and Li.  We will likely not have time to cover this chapter.

 

HOMEWORK SOLUTIONS


 

PROF. MARTONOSI’S CONTACT INFO

Office: Olin 1277

E-mail: martonosi @ math . hmc . edu [please note the spelling…]

Phone: ext. 7-0481

Office Hours: TBD

 

LECTURE INFO

MW 1:15-2:30

Mondays: Beckman B134

Wednesdays: Parsons PC Computer Lab

 

COURSE GRADER

Tim Sweda


 

COURSE OVERVIEW (click here for day-by-day)

Linear regression models form the foundation of statistical analysis, yet they are often misused and misinterpreted.  In this course, we will expand on the simple linear regression model presented in Math 62, and we will delve deeper into the theory and application of such models, examining regression with several variables, polynomial regression, ANOVA, model diagnostics and transformations, and variable selection.  In addition to studying the theory of regression, we will be analyzing real data!  Prerequisite: Math 62.  2 credit hours.

 

AIMS

This course intends to develop your understanding of the theory and application of statistical methods through the study of linear regression models in particular.  This is a first upper-level course in statistics to present the foundations for statistical theory on which other methods build.  Your understanding of linear models (and more generally, statistics) will be strengthened in two directions:  1. Thorough theoretical understanding of statistical models, assumptions and inferences; 2. Practical understanding of the challenges of applying such models to real data.  Indeed, at the heart of this course is the interface between the statistical and probabilistic theory and its implications on the practical use of statistics. 

 

OBJECTIVES 

On completion of this course, you should be able to (among other things) construct an appropriate regression model for a given set of data, including

a)     identifying a model type

b)     selecting explanatory variables

c)      transforming the data

d)     fitting the model

e)     evaluating the applicability of the model to the data

f)        interpreting the model

or identify when no such model is appropriate.

 



TEXT

Applied Linear Statistical Models, 5th edition, by Kutner, Nachtsheim, Neter and Li

ISBN 0-07-238688-6   Text materials website: http://apps.csom.umn.edu/Nachtsheim/5th/

Text Data Sets (.txt format; on-campus access only)

GRADING

Your grade in this course will be based on:

Homework assignments: 40%

Grading rubric for homework assignments:

Each problem will be graded on a 5-point scale:

1 point:   Problem was attempted.
1 point:   Student approached the problem correctly, irrespective of technical mistakes that may have been made.
1 point:   Any assumptions made were stated (if this criterion is not applicable, then this point is a freebie for the student).
1 point:   The solution is correct.
1 point:   The writing and explanation are clear and easy to follow.

Under this rubric, it should be easy to get three points out of five (for attempting the problem, stating assumptions and writing clear explanations).  Moreover, a correct solution might earn only three points out of five if assumptions are not stated clearly or if the writing and explanation are unclear.  So I feel this scheme puts weight on the things I'd like most to encourage.   

 

The homework in this course has two purposes: 1. to provide practice in the framing and solving of practical problems; and 2. to develop your theoretical understanding of the material.  Thus your weekly assignments will consist of both data analysis tasks and proofs.

 

The Homework page will list daily the reading and homework problems corresponding to that day’s lecture, but the homework will be collected weekly, at 5pm on Wednesdays.

 

The best way to succeed in this course is to stay current by reviewing your class notes, reading the textbook and completing the homework problems after each lecture.  For other suggestions for success, please read these Study Tips.

 

-          Homework will be due at 5pm on Wednesdays.

-          No late homework will be accepted without a note from a Dean.

-          Homework must adhere to the Mathematics Department Homework Guidelines format described at http://math.hmc.edu/~orrison/teaching/homework/

-          Homework solutions will be posted on the course website.

-          You must work individually on homework assignments, though you are encouraged to discuss with your other classmates, provided you acknowledge any assistance given or received. 

-          Statistical Software: Where indicated, you may use statistical software of your choice to complete computational problems.  The PC and LAC labs on campus have Minitab and SPSS installed on them.  Also available is a freeware known as R, which you can download from http://www.r-project.org/  Their website also provides documentation, but a nice manual is by Peter Dalgaard: Introductory Statistics with R, which is available at the library.  Campus machines also have Maple and Minitab installed, which both have statistical packages.  Certain department computer labs may also provide access to SPSS, SAS or Mathematica.

-          Extra Credit:  Write a computer tutorial for an “alternative” (i.e. non-Minitab) statistical software package – R, Matlab, Maple, SPSS, SAS, or Mathematica (if you have access to these).  The tutorial should describe how to use that package to do a particular statistical analysis that we have seen in class.  In addition to the tutorial, you must write a short summary describing the strengths and weaknesses of the package you chose for doing that type of analysis.  If you elect to do any of these extra credit tutorials, you are agreeing to allow me to use these tutorials in future HMC courses; as such, you must also send me electronic copies of the tutorials that I may edit.

 

Project: 30%:

In this project, you will perform the entire regression model-fitting process by finding an appropriate data set (either in an online database, from an experiment you have already conducted or by designing your own experiment) and conducting an appropriate regression analysis on this data using concepts learned in the course.  You will work in triplets on this project, and all team members are expected to contribute equally.

 

            Deadlines:

3/26 (in computer lab): Brainstorm project ideas with peers

3/31: Written proposal due

4/16 (in class): Progress discussion with peers (each team member must bring a preliminary model to the discussion and be prepared to explain it to others)

4/23: Report draft due (each team member should bring a copy of the draft)

4/28 (in class): Discussion of drafts

4/30: Final report due

 

Final Exam: 30%

The final will be an “in-class” exam during finals week.

 

The homework is intended to strengthen your theoretical understanding of the material.  The project will help you to apply the theory to a practical situation.  The exam will test your understanding of both contexts.

 

Note: you must receive credit on at least half of the homework assignments in order to pass the course.

 

If you need disability-related accommodations, please discuss this with Dean Noda as soon as possible.

 

STUDENT FEEDBACK

In addition to formal mid-course and end-of-course evaluations, I encourage you to let me know immediately after class if a concept was not clear or if there is something I can do to facilitate the learning process in class.  And if you are struggling with the course, the best way to let me know is to come to my office… frequently.  I am here to help you learn the material, but I cannot do so if you do not actively seek help.