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Projects in 1999–2000

Fair, Isaac, and Company, Inc.: Preemptive Offers for Portfolio Defense

Andrew J. Bernoff

The purpose of the project is to study the mathematical risk structure of preemptive offers, the effect these have on the likelihood of acceptance and thereby develop insights for the design of decision models that characterize successful preemptive offer strategies. The team's goal willbe to assess the expected costs and benefits accruing from one or more decision models for preemptive offers. A simulation of the decision process will be demonstrated, using a range of realistic parameters and account data supplied by the sponsor. An analysis of model behaviors will be distilled into a recommended strategy for the sponsor.


  • Otto Cortez
  • Jeffrey Hartline
  • Philip Martin (Team Leader)
  • Helen Munroe

HNC Software, Inc.: Link Anaylsis

Lesley Ward

This clinic project will explore the application of 'link analysis' to large datasets representing these networks. Link analysis attempts to improve on basic search techniques by analyzing both the properties of the nodes and the properties of its linkage to the network. This project will produce a written survey of the literature of link analysis, with a focus on techniques and models that appear to be useful for detecting group behaviors of interest to HNC. New models and techniques may be proposed by the team. If feasible, the team will implement and evaluate one or more of these models on a small-scale HNC data collection or simulated data and make recommendations for applying the techniques to full-scale data collections.


  • Gregory Mae (Team Leader)
  • Joel Miller
  • Fred Schaefer

Space Systems/Loral: Advanced Propellant Dispersion Analysis for Orbit-Raising and Maintenance of Geosynchronous Satellites

Henry Krieger

This project involves the extension of an analysis tool that was developed by last year's SS/Loral Math Clinic team. The purposes of this year's project are:

1. To incorporate an improved mathematical model of the orbital mechanics, both for the launch phase and the on-orbit phase of the mission. In particular, perturbation analysis of the exact orbit changes produced by each thruster firing will be considered a better model for the thruster firing than the instantaneous impulse model assumed last year.

2. To analyze empirical data provided by the project sponsor and its suppliers in order to better model the distributions of the various dispersions involved.

3. To review the existing software code in order to look for possible inefficiencies and discrepancies from sponsor expected results and to provide user documentation for the software.


  • Mark Amasuga
  • Christopher Sherwin
  • Kate Sims
  • Jennifer Voelmeck (Team Leader)