Nadia Abuelezam

Harvey Mudd College Mathematics 2008-2009

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Final Thesis: Mathematical AIDS Epidemic Model: Preferential Anti-Retroviral Therapy Distribution in Resource Constrained Countries
Thesis Proposal: Modeling/Maximizing ARV Distribution in Rural and Urban Uganda
Thesis Advisor: Lisette de Pillis
Second Reader: Karl Haushalter
Presentation: Modeling HIV/AIDS: Preferential ART Distribution in Resource Constrained Countries
Poster: Modeling HIV/AIDS: Preferential ART Distribution in Resource Constrained Countries

Mathematical AIDS Epidemic Model: Preferential Anti-Retroviral Therapy Distribution in Resource Constrained Countries

HIV/AIDS is one of the largest health problems the world is currently facing. Even with anti-retroviral therapies (ART), many resource-constrained countries are unable to meet the treatment needs of their infected populations. ART-distribution methods need to be created that prevent the largest number of future HIV infections. We have developed a compartment model that tracks the spread of HIV in multiple two-sex populations over time in the presence of limited treatment. The model has been fit to represent the HIV epidemic in rural and urban areas in Uganda. With the model we examine the spread of HIV among urban and rural regions and observe the effects of preferential treatment to rural areas on the spread of HIV in the country as a whole. We also investigate the effects of preferentially treating women on the spread of HIV. We find that preferentially treating urban women produces the most dramatic effect in reducing the number of infected male and females in rural and urban areas.